SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 80.56%. A draw had a probability of 12.7% and a win for Rio Ave had a probability of 6.76%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.02%) and 1-0 (8.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.98%), while for a Rio Ave win it was 0-1 (2.15%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Benfica | Draw | Rio Ave |
80.56% ( 1.86) | 12.68% ( -0.7) | 6.76% ( -1.16) |
| Both teams to score 47.27% ( -3.69) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 67.65% ( -1.28) | 32.35% ( 1.28) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 46.02% ( -1.5) | 53.97% ( 1.5) |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 93.82% ( 0.09) | 6.18% ( -0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 76.63% ( 0.24) | 23.37% ( -0.24) |
| Rio Ave Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 50.38% ( -3.98) | 49.62% ( 3.98) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 15.61% ( -2.96) | 84.39% ( 2.96) |
| Score Analysis |
| Benfica | Draw | Rio Ave |
| 2-0 @ 11.87% ( 0.91) 3-0 @ 11.02% ( 0.89)1-0 @ 8.53% ( 0.62)2-1 @ 8.33% ( -0.28)3-1 @ 7.73% ( -0.22)4-0 @ 7.68% ( 0.66)4-1 @ 5.38% ( -0.13)5-0 @ 4.28% ( 0.39)5-1 @ 3% ( -0.06)3-2 @ 2.71% ( -0.41)6-0 @ 1.98% ( 0.19)4-2 @ 1.89% ( -0.28)6-1 @ 1.39% ( -0.02)5-2 @ 1.05% ( -0.15)Other @ 3.73% Total : 80.55% | 1-1 @ 5.98% ( -0.23) 0-0 @ 3.06% ( 0.21)2-2 @ 2.92% ( -0.46)Other @ 0.72% Total : 12.68% | 0-1 @ 2.15% ( -0.09) 1-2 @ 2.1% ( -0.34)Other @ 2.52% Total : 6.76% |
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