SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 58.3%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for Porto had a probability of 19.73%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.94%) and 2-0 (9.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.35%), while for a Porto win it was 0-1 (5.39%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Benfica | Draw | Porto |
58.3% ( 2) | 21.97% ( -0.68) | 19.73% ( -1.33) |
| Both teams to score 54.65% ( 0.15) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.38% ( 1.21) | 43.62% ( -1.21) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.99% ( 1.17) | 66.01% ( -1.18) |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.34% ( 1.07) | 14.66% ( -1.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.19% ( 2.02) | 42.81% ( -2.03) |
| Porto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.03% ( -0.64) | 35.96% ( 0.64) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.25% ( -0.66) | 72.74% ( 0.66) |
| Score Analysis |
| Benfica | Draw | Porto |
| 1-0 @ 10.12% ( -0.15) 2-1 @ 9.94% ( 0.05)2-0 @ 9.72% ( 0.21)3-1 @ 6.36% ( 0.26)3-0 @ 6.22% ( 0.36)3-2 @ 3.25% ( 0.08)4-1 @ 3.05% ( 0.23)4-0 @ 2.99% ( 0.28)4-2 @ 1.56% ( 0.09)5-1 @ 1.17% ( 0.13)5-0 @ 1.15% ( 0.14)Other @ 2.77% Total : 58.3% | 1-1 @ 10.35% ( -0.34) 0-0 @ 5.27% ( -0.29)2-2 @ 5.08% ( -0.06)3-3 @ 1.11% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.15% Total : 21.96% | 0-1 @ 5.39% ( -0.39) 1-2 @ 5.29% ( -0.27)0-2 @ 2.76% ( -0.25)1-3 @ 1.81% ( -0.13)2-3 @ 1.73% ( -0.05)0-3 @ 0.94% ( -0.1)Other @ 1.81% Total : 19.73% |
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