It is hard not to expect anything other than a routine victory for Benfica on Saturday. Not only are the hosts on an impressive winning sequence on their turf, but Estrela's away blues have seemingly been carried over into the 2024-25 season, pointing to a seventh straight loss against the Eagles at the Stadium of Light.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 79.92%. A draw had a probability of 12.8% and a win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 7.31%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.37%) and 2-1 (8.4%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.93%), while for a Estrela Amadora win it was 1-2 (2.27%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
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