SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 72.87%. A draw had a probability of 16.3% and a win for Rio Ave had a probability of 10.84%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.38%) and 3-0 (9.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.62%), while for a Rio Ave win it was 1-2 (3.21%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Benfica | Draw | Rio Ave |
72.87% ( -0.49) | 16.29% ( 0.18) | 10.84% ( 0.3) |
| Both teams to score 52.06% ( 0.46) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.11% ( 0.02) | 35.89% ( -0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.02% ( 0.02) | 57.98% ( -0.02) |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.46% ( -0.1) | 8.54% ( 0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 70.45% ( -0.25) | 29.55% ( 0.25) |
| Rio Ave Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.92% ( 0.56) | 43.07% ( -0.56) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 20.64% ( 0.47) | 79.35% ( -0.47) |
| Score Analysis |
| Benfica | Draw | Rio Ave |
| 2-0 @ 11.13% ( -0.12) 2-1 @ 9.38% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 9.13% ( -0.14)1-0 @ 9.05% ( -0.05)3-1 @ 7.69% 4-0 @ 5.62% ( -0.12)4-1 @ 4.73% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 3.24% ( 0.05)5-0 @ 2.76% ( -0.07)5-1 @ 2.33% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 1.99% ( 0.02)6-0 @ 1.13% ( -0.03)5-2 @ 0.98% ( 0.01)6-1 @ 0.96% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.74% Total : 72.87% | 1-1 @ 7.62% ( 0.07) 2-2 @ 3.95% ( 0.08)0-0 @ 3.68% ( -0)3-3 @ 0.91% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.13% Total : 16.29% | 1-2 @ 3.21% ( 0.08) 0-1 @ 3.1% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 1.31% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 1.11% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 0.9% ( 0.04)Other @ 1.22% Total : 10.84% |
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