SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 74.97%. A draw had a probability of 16.6% and a win for Rio Ave had a probability of 8.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 0-2 with a probability of 14.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (12.87%) and 0-3 (10.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.81%), while for a Rio Ave win it was 1-0 (3.46%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Rio Ave | Draw | Benfica |
8.4% ( -0.11) | 16.63% ( -0.05) | 74.97% ( 0.16) |
| Both teams to score 40.72% ( -0.31) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.56% ( -0.14) | 45.44% ( 0.15) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.23% ( -0.14) | 67.77% ( 0.14) |
| Rio Ave Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 45.48% ( -0.35) | 54.52% ( 0.35) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 12.41% ( -0.21) | 87.59% ( 0.21) |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.54% ( 0.01) | 10.46% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 65.92% ( 0.01) | 34.08% ( -0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Rio Ave | Draw | Benfica |
| 1-0 @ 3.46% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 2.37% ( -0.04)2-0 @ 1.05% ( -0.02)Other @ 1.52% Total : 8.4% | 1-1 @ 7.81% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 5.71% ( 0.04)2-2 @ 2.67% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.44% Total : 16.63% | 0-2 @ 14.53% ( 0.09) 0-1 @ 12.87% ( 0.08)0-3 @ 10.93% ( 0.07)1-2 @ 8.82% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 6.63% ( -0.03)0-4 @ 6.17% ( 0.04)1-4 @ 3.74% ( -0.02)0-5 @ 2.79% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 2.01% ( -0.03)1-5 @ 1.69% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 1.14% ( -0.02)0-6 @ 1.05% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.59% Total : 74.95% |
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