SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 39.67%. A win for Benfica had a probability of 36.01% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.72%) and 0-2 (5.93%). The likeliest Benfica win was 2-1 (8.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.22%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Benfica | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
36.01% ( -1.15) | 24.31% ( 0.14) | 39.67% ( 1.01) |
| Both teams to score 60.17% ( -0.63) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.5% ( -0.78) | 42.5% ( 0.78) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.09% ( -0.78) | 64.91% ( 0.78) |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.64% ( -0.96) | 23.36% ( 0.96) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.67% ( -1.41) | 57.32% ( 1.41) |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.51% ( 0.15) | 21.49% ( -0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.46% ( 0.23) | 54.54% ( -0.23) |
| Score Analysis |
| Benfica | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
| 2-1 @ 8.16% ( -0.14) 1-0 @ 7.3% ( 0.05)2-0 @ 5.31% ( -0.12)3-1 @ 3.96% ( -0.18)3-2 @ 3.04% ( -0.13)3-0 @ 2.57% ( -0.13)4-1 @ 1.44% ( -0.11)4-2 @ 1.11% ( -0.08)4-0 @ 0.94% ( -0.08)Other @ 2.19% Total : 36.01% | 1-1 @ 11.22% ( 0.12) 2-2 @ 6.27% ( -0.08)0-0 @ 5.02% ( 0.17)3-3 @ 1.56% ( -0.06)Other @ 0.24% Total : 24.31% | 1-2 @ 8.63% ( 0.13) 0-1 @ 7.72% ( 0.3)0-2 @ 5.93% ( 0.26)1-3 @ 4.42% ( 0.09)2-3 @ 3.22% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 3.04% ( 0.14)1-4 @ 1.7% ( 0.04)2-4 @ 1.24% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 1.17% ( 0.06)Other @ 2.61% Total : 39.67% |
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