SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boca Juniors win with a probability of 50.08%. A draw had a probability of 26.8% and a win for Gimnasia had a probability of 23.11%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boca Juniors win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.14%) and 2-1 (8.97%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.45%), while for a Gimnasia win it was 0-1 (8.65%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Boca Juniors in this match.
| Result | ||
| Boca Juniors | Draw | Gimnasia |
50.08% ( -0.81) | 26.81% ( 0.04) | 23.11% ( 0.77) |
| Both teams to score 44.8% ( 0.7) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.06% ( 0.48) | 58.94% ( -0.48) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.58% ( 0.37) | 79.42% ( -0.37) |
| Boca Juniors Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.32% ( -0.16) | 23.68% ( 0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.21% ( -0.23) | 57.79% ( 0.23) |
| Gimnasia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.7% ( 1.04) | 41.3% ( -1.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.18% ( 0.91) | 77.82% ( -0.91) |
| Score Analysis |
| Boca Juniors | Draw | Gimnasia |
| 1-0 @ 14.08% ( -0.33) 2-0 @ 10.14% ( -0.29)2-1 @ 8.97% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 4.87% ( -0.16)3-1 @ 4.31% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 1.91% ( 0.05)4-0 @ 1.76% ( -0.07)4-1 @ 1.55% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.48% Total : 50.07% | 1-1 @ 12.45% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 9.78% ( -0.18)2-2 @ 3.97% ( 0.12)Other @ 0.61% Total : 26.81% | 0-1 @ 8.65% ( 0.09) 1-2 @ 5.51% ( 0.19)0-2 @ 3.82% ( 0.15)1-3 @ 1.62% ( 0.1)2-3 @ 1.17% ( 0.07)0-3 @ 1.13% ( 0.07)Other @ 1.2% Total : 23.11% |
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