SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Botafogo win with a probability of 64.19%. A draw had a probability of 21.5% and a win for Vasco da Gama had a probability of 14.35%.
The most likely scoreline for a Botafogo win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.6%) and 2-1 (9.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.13%), while for a Vasco da Gama win it was 0-1 (5.35%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Botafogo would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Botafogo | Draw | Vasco da Gama |
64.19% ( -0.28) | 21.46% ( 0.05) | 14.35% ( 0.23) |
| Both teams to score 45.26% ( 0.44) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.51% ( 0.27) | 50.48% ( -0.27) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.59% ( 0.24) | 72.41% ( -0.24) |
| Botafogo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.94% ( 0) | 15.06% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 56.44% | 43.56% |
| Vasco da Gama Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 53.28% ( 0.52) | 46.71% ( -0.52) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 17.73% ( 0.39) | 82.27% ( -0.39) |
| Score Analysis |
| Botafogo | Draw | Vasco da Gama |
| 1-0 @ 13.31% ( -0.15) 2-0 @ 12.6% ( -0.14)2-1 @ 9.6% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 7.96% ( -0.09)3-1 @ 6.06% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 3.77% ( -0.04)4-1 @ 2.87% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.31% ( 0.04)5-0 @ 1.43% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 1.09% ( 0.02)5-1 @ 1.09% ( 0)Other @ 2.12% Total : 64.17% | 1-1 @ 10.13% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 7.03% ( -0.08)2-2 @ 3.65% ( 0.07)Other @ 0.64% Total : 21.46% | 0-1 @ 5.35% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 3.86% ( 0.07)0-2 @ 2.04% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 0.98% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 0.93% ( 0.03)Other @ 1.2% Total : 14.35% |
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