SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Botafogo win with a probability of 62.17%. A draw had a probability of 22.6% and a win for Penarol had a probability of 15.21%.
The most likely scoreline for a Botafogo win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.63%) and 2-1 (9.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.59%), while for a Penarol win it was 0-1 (5.92%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Botafogo would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Botafogo | Draw | Penarol |
62.17% ( -0.91) | 22.62% ( 0.31) | 15.21% ( 0.59) |
| Both teams to score 43.95% ( 0.44) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.61% ( -0.16) | 53.38% ( 0.15) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.08% ( -0.13) | 74.92% ( 0.13) |
| Botafogo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.28% ( -0.37) | 16.71% ( 0.36) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.38% ( -0.66) | 46.61% ( 0.65) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 52.77% ( 0.76) | 47.23% ( -0.76) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 17.34% ( 0.57) | 82.66% ( -0.57) |
| Score Analysis |
| Botafogo | Draw | Penarol |
| 1-0 @ 14.12% ( -0.09) 2-0 @ 12.63% ( -0.23)2-1 @ 9.48% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 7.53% ( -0.24)3-1 @ 5.65% ( -0.05)4-0 @ 3.37% ( -0.15)4-1 @ 2.53% ( -0.05)3-2 @ 2.12% ( 0.03)5-0 @ 1.21% ( -0.07)4-2 @ 0.95% ( 0)5-1 @ 0.9% ( -0.03)Other @ 1.69% Total : 62.16% | 1-1 @ 10.59% ( 0.16) 0-0 @ 7.89% ( 0.05)2-2 @ 3.55% ( 0.09)Other @ 0.58% Total : 22.61% | 0-1 @ 5.92% ( 0.16) 1-2 @ 3.97% ( 0.14)0-2 @ 2.22% ( 0.11)1-3 @ 0.99% ( 0.06)Other @ 2.1% Total : 15.21% |
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