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Copa do Brasil | Semi-Finals | 1st Leg
Oct 2, 2024 at 11.15pm UK
Arena MRV
VD

Atletico Mineiro
2 - 1
Vasco

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Cruzeiro 1-1 Vasco
Sunday, September 29 at 10.30pm in Brasileiro

We said: Atletico Mineiro 1-0 Vasco da Gama

These sides are tied for points domestically this season (36), and we expect a close encounter on Wednesday, with the Mineiro backline holding strong and frustrating a talented Vasco squad. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 57.51%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Vasco da Gama had a probability of 18.9%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11%) and 2-1 (9.69%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.18%), while for a Vasco da Gama win it was 0-1 (6.46%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Mineiro would win this match.

Result
Atletico MineiroDrawVasco da Gama
57.51% (0.189 0.19) 23.59% (-0.072000000000003 -0.07) 18.9% (-0.12 -0.12)
Both teams to score 48.17% (0.017000000000003 0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
48.45% (0.124 0.12)51.55% (-0.127 -0.13)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
26.65% (0.108 0.11)73.35% (-0.111 -0.11)
Atletico Mineiro Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.3% (0.114 0.11)17.7% (-0.117 -0.12)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
51.64% (0.198 0.2)48.36% (-0.201 -0.2)
Vasco da Gama Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
58.53% (-0.064 -0.06)41.47% (0.061 0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
22.03% (-0.056999999999999 -0.06)77.97% (0.052999999999997 0.05)
Score Analysis
    Atletico Mineiro 57.5%
    Vasco da Gama 18.9%
    Draw 23.58%
Atletico MineiroDrawVasco da Gama
1-0 @ 12.71% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-0 @ 11% (0.029999999999999 0.03)
2-1 @ 9.69% (0.0079999999999991 0.01)
3-0 @ 6.35% (0.04 0.04)
3-1 @ 5.59% (0.026 0.03)
4-0 @ 2.75% (0.027 0.03)
3-2 @ 2.46% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
4-1 @ 2.42% (0.021 0.02)
4-2 @ 1.07% (0.0069999999999999 0.01)
5-0 @ 0.95% (0.013 0.01)
Other @ 2.52%
Total : 57.5%
1-1 @ 11.18% (-0.040000000000001 -0.04)
0-0 @ 7.34% (-0.037 -0.04)
2-2 @ 4.26% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Other @ 0.8%
Total : 23.58%
0-1 @ 6.46% (-0.044 -0.04)
1-2 @ 4.92% (-0.023 -0.02)
0-2 @ 2.84% (-0.024 -0.02)
1-3 @ 1.45% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
2-3 @ 1.25% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Other @ 1.98%
Total : 18.9%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Palmeiras 2-1 Atletico Mineiro
Saturday, September 28 at 10.30pm in Brasileiro
Last Game: Atletico Mineiro 2-0 Fluminense
Wednesday, September 25 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Atletico Mineiro 3-0 Bragantino
Sunday, September 22 at 8pm in Brasileiro
Last Game: Fluminense 1-0 Atletico Mineiro
Wednesday, September 18 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Bahia 3-0 Atletico Mineiro
Sunday, September 15 at 10.30pm in Brasileiro
Last Game: Atletico Mineiro 0-0 Sao Paulo
Friday, September 13 at 1.45am in Copa do Brasil
Last Game: Cruzeiro 1-1 Vasco
Sunday, September 29 at 10.30pm in Brasileiro
Last Game: Vasco 0-1 Palmeiras
Sunday, September 22 at 8pm in Brasileiro
Last Game: Flamengo 1-1 Vasco
Sunday, September 15 at 10.30pm in Brasileiro
Last Game: Athletico PR 2-1 Vasco (4-5 pen.)
Thursday, September 12 at 1.30am in Copa do Brasil
Last Game: Vitoria 0-1 Vasco
Sunday, September 1 at 10.30pm in Brasileiro
Last Game: Vasco 2-1 Athletico PR
Friday, August 30 at 12am in Copa do Brasil


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