Both sides are struggling at the moment, but Sao Paulo seem to recover quicker following a disappointing result, which is why we project them to win a close one. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 56.49%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Vasco da Gama had a probability of 18.93%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.36%) and 2-1 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.53%), while for a Vasco da Gama win it was 0-1 (7.05%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sao Paulo would win this match.

Result
Sao Paulo	Draw	Vasco da Gama
56.49% ( 0.8)	24.58% ( -0.23)	18.93% ( -0.57)

Both teams to score 45.43% (

-0.23)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

44.76% (

0.16)

55.24% (

-0.17)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

23.53% (

0.13)

76.47% (

-0.14)

Sao Paulo Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.53% (

0.37)

19.47% (

-0.38)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

48.67% (

0.61)

51.33% (

-0.61)

Vasco da Gama Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

56.41% (

-0.55)

43.59% (

0.54)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

20.21% (

-0.46)

79.78% (

0.46)

Score Analysis

Sao Paulo 56.48%

Vasco da Gama 18.93%

Draw 24.58%

Sao Paulo	Draw	Vasco da Gama
1-0 @ 13.88% ( 0.07) 2-0 @ 11.36% ( 0.19) 2-1 @ 9.44% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 6.2% ( 0.18) 3-1 @ 5.15% ( 0.07) 4-0 @ 2.54% ( 0.1) 3-2 @ 2.14% ( -0) 4-1 @ 2.11% ( 0.05) Other @ 3.69% Total : 56.48%	1-1 @ 11.53% ( -0.11) 0-0 @ 8.49% ( -0.06) 2-2 @ 3.92% ( -0.05) Other @ 0.64% Total : 24.58%	0-1 @ 7.05% ( -0.15) 1-2 @ 4.79% ( -0.12) 0-2 @ 2.93% ( -0.11) 1-3 @ 1.33% ( -0.05) 2-3 @ 1.08% ( -0.03) Other @ 1.76% Total : 18.93%