SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bragantino win with a probability of 51%. A draw had a probability of 25.4% and a win for Vasco da Gama had a probability of 23.55%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bragantino win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.69%) and 2-1 (9.4%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.06%), while for a Vasco da Gama win it was 0-1 (7.75%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bragantino would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Bragantino | Draw | Vasco da Gama |
51% ( 0.31) | 25.45% ( -0.23) | 23.55% ( -0.09) |
| Both teams to score 49.01% ( 0.56) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.32% ( 0.79) | 53.68% ( -0.78) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.83% ( 0.66) | 75.17% ( -0.66) |
| Bragantino Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.93% ( 0.45) | 21.07% ( -0.45) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.12% ( 0.7) | 53.88% ( -0.7) |
| Vasco da Gama Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.09% ( 0.36) | 37.9% ( -0.36) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.32% ( 0.35) | 74.68% ( -0.34) |
| Score Analysis |
| Bragantino | Draw | Vasco da Gama |
| 1-0 @ 12.43% ( -0.21) 2-0 @ 9.69% ( -0.03)2-1 @ 9.4% ( 0.06)3-0 @ 5.03% ( 0.05)3-1 @ 4.88% ( 0.1)3-2 @ 2.37% ( 0.07)4-0 @ 1.96% ( 0.05)4-1 @ 1.9% ( 0.06)4-2 @ 0.92% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.43% Total : 50.99% | 1-1 @ 12.06% ( -0.09) 0-0 @ 7.99% ( -0.25)2-2 @ 4.56% ( 0.07)Other @ 0.84% Total : 25.44% | 0-1 @ 7.75% ( -0.16) 1-2 @ 5.85% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 3.76% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 1.89% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 1.47% ( 0.04)0-3 @ 1.22% ( -0)Other @ 1.61% Total : 23.55% |
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