Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cremonese win with a probability of 41.92%. A win for Brescia had a probability of 30.95% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cremonese win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.59%) and 0-2 (7.75%). The likeliest Brescia win was 1-0 (9.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.84%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood.
-0.37) 
0.03) 
