Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brescia win with a probability of 40.25%. A win for Modena had a probability of 30.48% and a draw had a probability of 29.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Brescia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.98%) and 2-1 (7.85%). The likeliest Modena win was 0-1 (11.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.34%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood.
-0.49) 
0.34) 
