Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Modena win with a probability of 38.56%. A win for Brescia had a probability of 33.35% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Modena win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.03%) and 2-0 (7.22%). The likeliest Brescia win was 0-1 (10.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.17%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood.
-0.06) 
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