Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brescia win with a probability of 40.17%. A win for Modena had a probability of 33.34% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Brescia win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.55%) and 0-2 (7.05%). The likeliest Modena win was 1-0 (9.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.59%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Brescia would win this match.
0.04) 
-0.11) 
