SM
| Current Group G Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Hungary | 3 | 5 | 7 |
| 2 | Serbia | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Montenegro | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 4 | Bulgaria | 4 | -4 | 2 |
| 5 | Lithuania | 3 | -4 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Iran win with a probability of 47.62%. A win for Bulgaria had a probability of 26.99% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Iran win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.32%) and 0-2 (8.5%). The likeliest Bulgaria win was 1-0 (7.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.07%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 11% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Iran in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Iran.
| Result | ||
| Bulgaria | Draw | Iran |
26.99% ( -2.07) | 25.38% ( -0.31) | 47.62% ( 2.38) |
| Both teams to score 52.41% ( -0.47) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.21% ( 0.07) | 50.79% ( -0.07) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.32% ( 0.06) | 72.68% ( -0.06) |
| Bulgaria Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.63% ( -1.55) | 33.37% ( 1.55) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30% ( -1.74) | 70% ( 1.74) |
| Iran Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.66% ( 1.1) | 21.34% ( -1.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.7% ( 1.67) | 54.3% ( -1.67) |
| Score Analysis |
| Bulgaria | Draw | Iran |
| 1-0 @ 7.82% ( -0.36) 2-1 @ 6.62% ( -0.37)2-0 @ 4.29% ( -0.39)3-1 @ 2.42% ( -0.25)3-2 @ 1.87% ( -0.12)3-0 @ 1.57% ( -0.22)Other @ 2.4% Total : 26.99% | 1-1 @ 12.07% ( -0.14) 0-0 @ 7.12% ( -0.02)2-2 @ 5.12% ( -0.11)3-3 @ 0.96% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.38% | 0-1 @ 10.99% ( 0.32) 1-2 @ 9.32% ( 0.19)0-2 @ 8.5% ( 0.52)1-3 @ 4.8% ( 0.25)0-3 @ 4.37% ( 0.4)2-3 @ 2.63% ( 0.03)1-4 @ 1.85% ( 0.16)0-4 @ 1.69% ( 0.21)2-4 @ 1.02% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.44% Total : 47.62% |
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