SM
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Madagascar | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Nigeria | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Guinea | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Burundi | 3 | -4 | 0 |
| Current Group D Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Angola | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Burkina Faso | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 3 | Mauritania | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 4 | Algeria | 3 | -1 | 2 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burkina Faso win with a probability of 60.04%. A draw had a probability of 23.4% and a win for Burundi had a probability of 16.55%.
The most likely scoreline for a Burkina Faso win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12.16%) and 1-2 (9.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.96%), while for a Burundi win it was 1-0 (6.34%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Burkina Faso would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Burundi | Draw | Burkina Faso |
16.55% ( 0.3) | 23.4% ( 0.11) | 60.04% ( -0.4) |
| Both teams to score 44.52% ( 0.28) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.84% ( 0.05) | 54.16% ( -0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.43% ( 0.05) | 75.57% ( -0.04) |
| Burundi Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 54.12% ( 0.42) | 45.87% ( -0.42) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 18.38% ( 0.33) | 81.62% ( -0.33) |
| Burkina Faso Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.26% ( -0.12) | 17.74% ( 0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.58% ( -0.21) | 48.42% ( 0.22) |
| Score Analysis |
| Burundi | Draw | Burkina Faso |
| 1-0 @ 6.34% ( 0.06) 2-1 @ 4.27% ( 0.07)2-0 @ 2.47% ( 0.05)3-1 @ 1.11% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 0.96% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.4% Total : 16.55% | 1-1 @ 10.96% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 8.14% ( -0.02)2-2 @ 3.7% ( 0.05)Other @ 0.6% Total : 23.4% | 0-1 @ 14.07% ( -0.09) 0-2 @ 12.16% ( -0.13)1-2 @ 9.48% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 7.02% ( -0.1)1-3 @ 5.47% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 3.03% ( -0.06)1-4 @ 2.36% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 2.13% ( 0.02)0-5 @ 1.05% ( -0.02)2-4 @ 0.92% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.34% Total : 60.03% |
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