Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cremonese win with a probability of 42.69%. A win for Catanzaro had a probability of 31.22% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cremonese win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.86%) and 0-2 (7.49%). The likeliest Catanzaro win was 1-0 (8.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.4%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cremonese would win this match.
0.72) 
-0.13) 
