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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Racing de Montevideo win with a probability of 42.72%. A draw had a probability of 29.1% and a win for Cerro had a probability of 28.18%.
The most likely scoreline for a Racing de Montevideo win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.65%) and 1-2 (8.07%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.21%), while for a Cerro win it was 1-0 (10.83%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Cerro | Draw | Racing de Montevideo |
28.18% ( -0.27) | 29.1% ( 0.08) | 42.72% ( 0.19) |
| Both teams to score 42.76% ( -0.33) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 36.47% ( -0.34) | 63.52% ( 0.34) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 17.15% ( -0.25) | 82.84% ( 0.25) |
| Cerro Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.66% ( -0.42) | 39.33% ( 0.42) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.96% ( -0.39) | 76.04% ( 0.39) |
| Racing de Montevideo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.49% ( -0.06) | 29.51% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.47% ( -0.08) | 65.53% ( 0.08) |
| Score Analysis |
| Cerro | Draw | Racing de Montevideo |
| 1-0 @ 10.83% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 6.17% ( -0.07)2-0 @ 5.05% ( -0.05)3-1 @ 1.92% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 1.57% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 1.17% ( -0.03)Other @ 1.47% Total : 28.18% | 1-1 @ 13.21% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 11.6% ( 0.14)2-2 @ 3.76% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.51% Total : 29.09% | 0-1 @ 14.16% ( 0.15) 0-2 @ 8.65% ( 0.08)1-2 @ 8.07% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 3.52% ( 0.03)1-3 @ 3.28% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.53% ( -0.02)0-4 @ 1.07% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 1% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.44% Total : 42.71% |
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