SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 46.71%. A win for Racing de Montevideo had a probability of 26.77% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.04%) and 0-2 (8.84%). The likeliest Racing de Montevideo win was 1-0 (8.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.54%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Racing de Montevideo | Draw | Penarol |
26.77% ( -0.89) | 26.51% ( -0.1) | 46.71% ( 0.99) |
| Both teams to score 48.86% ( -0.34) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.66% ( -0.14) | 55.33% ( 0.13) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.45% ( -0.11) | 76.54% ( 0.11) |
| Racing de Montevideo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.01% ( -0.8) | 35.98% ( 0.8) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.23% ( -0.83) | 72.76% ( 0.83) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.33% ( 0.41) | 23.67% ( -0.41) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.22% ( 0.59) | 57.77% ( -0.59) |
| Score Analysis |
| Racing de Montevideo | Draw | Penarol |
| 1-0 @ 8.71% ( -0.15) 2-1 @ 6.41% ( -0.17)2-0 @ 4.45% ( -0.17)3-1 @ 2.18% ( -0.11)3-2 @ 1.57% ( -0.06)3-0 @ 1.52% ( -0.09)Other @ 1.93% Total : 26.77% | 1-1 @ 12.54% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 8.52% ( 0.04)2-2 @ 4.62% ( -0.07)Other @ 0.83% Total : 26.51% | 0-1 @ 12.27% ( 0.21) 1-2 @ 9.04% ( 0.07)0-2 @ 8.84% ( 0.26)1-3 @ 4.34% ( 0.08)0-3 @ 4.25% ( 0.17)2-3 @ 2.22% ( -0)1-4 @ 1.56% ( 0.05)0-4 @ 1.53% ( 0.08)Other @ 2.66% Total : 46.71% |
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