SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerro win with a probability of 36.35%. A win for Plaza Colonia had a probability of 36.23% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerro win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.92%) and 0-2 (6.51%). The likeliest Plaza Colonia win was 1-0 (10.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.98%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Plaza Colonia | Draw | Cerro |
36.23% ( -0.43) | 27.42% ( 0.11) | 36.35% ( 0.31) |
| Both teams to score 49.6% ( -0.35) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.98% ( -0.43) | 56.02% ( 0.43) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.89% ( -0.35) | 77.1% ( 0.35) |
| Plaza Colonia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.39% ( -0.47) | 29.61% ( 0.47) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.35% ( -0.58) | 65.65% ( 0.57) |
| Cerro Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.46% ( -0.02) | 29.53% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.44% ( -0.02) | 65.55% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Plaza Colonia | Draw | Cerro |
| 1-0 @ 10.64% ( 0.04) 2-1 @ 7.9% ( -0.08)2-0 @ 6.48% ( -0.06)3-1 @ 3.2% ( -0.07)3-0 @ 2.63% ( -0.06)3-2 @ 1.95% ( -0.05)4-1 @ 0.98% ( -0.04)Other @ 2.45% Total : 36.22% | 1-1 @ 12.98% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 8.75% ( 0.14)2-2 @ 4.82% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.87% Total : 27.41% | 0-1 @ 10.66% ( 0.17) 1-2 @ 7.92% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 6.51% ( 0.1)1-3 @ 3.22% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 2.64% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 1.96% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 0.98% ( 0)Other @ 2.47% Total : 36.35% |
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