SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensor Sporting win with a probability of 44.28%. A win for Cerro had a probability of 28.96% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensor Sporting win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.85%) and 2-0 (8.23%). The likeliest Cerro win was 0-1 (9.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.68%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Defensor Sporting | Draw | Cerro |
44.28% ( -0.01) | 26.76% ( 0) | 28.96% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 49.57% ( -0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.88% ( -0.01) | 55.12% ( 0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.63% ( -0) | 76.37% ( 0) |
| Defensor Sporting Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.25% ( -0.01) | 24.75% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.68% ( -0.01) | 59.31% ( 0.01) |
| Cerro Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.87% ( 0) | 34.13% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.18% ( 0) | 70.82% ( -0) |
| Score Analysis |
| Defensor Sporting | Draw | Cerro |
| 1-0 @ 11.79% 2-1 @ 8.85% ( -0)2-0 @ 8.23% ( -0)3-1 @ 4.12% ( -0)3-0 @ 3.83% ( -0)3-2 @ 2.22% 4-1 @ 1.44% ( -0)4-0 @ 1.34% Other @ 2.46% Total : 44.27% | 1-1 @ 12.68% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 8.45% ( 0)2-2 @ 4.76% Other @ 0.87% Total : 26.76% | 0-1 @ 9.08% ( 0) 1-2 @ 6.82% ( 0)0-2 @ 4.88% ( 0)1-3 @ 2.44% 0-3 @ 1.75% 2-3 @ 1.71% Other @ 2.29% Total : 28.96% |
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