SM
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Qatar | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 2 | Tajikistan | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | China | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 4 | Lebanon | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| Current Group F Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Saudi Arabia | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Thailand | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 3 | Oman | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 4 | Kyrgyzstan | 3 | -4 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Thailand win with a probability of 37.91%. A win for China had a probability of 35.81% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Thailand win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.32%) and 0-2 (6.47%). The likeliest China win was 1-0 (9.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.49%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| China | Draw | Thailand |
35.81% ( -2.69) | 26.27% ( 0.27) | 37.91% ( 2.42) |
| Both teams to score 53.27% ( -0.89) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.62% ( -1.15) | 51.38% ( 1.14) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.8% ( -1.01) | 73.19% ( 1.01) |
| China Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.38% ( -2.07) | 27.62% ( 2.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.84% ( -2.75) | 63.15% ( 2.75) |
| Thailand Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.59% ( 0.85) | 26.4% ( -0.86) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.44% ( 1.13) | 61.56% ( -1.13) |
| Score Analysis |
| China | Draw | Thailand |
| 1-0 @ 9.38% ( -0.12) 2-1 @ 8.04% ( -0.39)2-0 @ 6.04% ( -0.45)3-1 @ 3.45% ( -0.39)3-0 @ 2.59% ( -0.36)3-2 @ 2.3% ( -0.2)4-1 @ 1.11% ( -0.2)Other @ 2.91% Total : 35.81% | 1-1 @ 12.49% ( 0.14) 0-0 @ 7.29% ( 0.33)2-2 @ 5.35% ( -0.13)3-3 @ 1.02% ( -0.06)Other @ 0.12% Total : 26.27% | 0-1 @ 9.71% ( 0.66) 1-2 @ 8.32% ( 0.29)0-2 @ 6.47% ( 0.58)1-3 @ 3.69% ( 0.22)0-3 @ 2.87% ( 0.32)2-3 @ 2.38% ( 0)1-4 @ 1.23% ( 0.1)0-4 @ 0.96% ( 0.13)Other @ 2.29% Total : 37.91% |
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