SM
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Qatar | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 2 | China | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 3 | Tajikistan | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | Lebanon | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Qatar | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 2 | China | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 3 | Tajikistan | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | Lebanon | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lebanon win with a probability of 44.27%. A draw had a probability of 28% and a win for China had a probability of 27.73%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lebanon win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.75%) and 2-1 (8.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13%), while for a China win it was 0-1 (9.95%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 10.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Lebanon | Draw | China |
44.27% ( -1.91) | 28% ( 0.46) | 27.73% ( 1.46) |
| Both teams to score 45.36% ( -0.25) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.86% ( -0.81) | 60.14% ( 0.81) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.65% ( -0.62) | 80.34% ( 0.62) |
| Lebanon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.95% ( -1.34) | 27.05% ( 1.35) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.58% ( -1.79) | 62.41% ( 1.79) |
| China Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.18% ( 0.79) | 37.82% ( -0.79) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.4% ( 0.76) | 74.6% ( -0.75) |
| Score Analysis |
| Lebanon | Draw | China |
| 1-0 @ 13.37% ( -0.11) 2-0 @ 8.75% ( -0.41)2-1 @ 8.5% ( -0.21)3-0 @ 3.81% ( -0.34)3-1 @ 3.71% ( -0.24)3-2 @ 1.8% ( -0.08)4-0 @ 1.25% ( -0.16)4-1 @ 1.21% ( -0.13)Other @ 1.87% Total : 44.26% | 1-1 @ 13% ( 0.17) 0-0 @ 10.23% ( 0.31)2-2 @ 4.13% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.63% Total : 28% | 0-1 @ 9.95% ( 0.5) 1-2 @ 6.32% ( 0.22)0-2 @ 4.84% ( 0.34)1-3 @ 2.05% ( 0.11)0-3 @ 1.57% ( 0.14)2-3 @ 1.34% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.67% Total : 27.73% |
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