SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Club Nacional win with a probability of 51.07%. A draw had a probability of 26.3% and a win for Aucas had a probability of 22.61%.
The most likely scoreline for a Club Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.24%) and 2-1 (9.12%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.29%), while for an Aucas win it was 0-1 (8.29%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Club Nacional would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Club Nacional | Draw | Aucas |
51.07% ( 0.21) | 26.32% ( 0.04) | 22.61% ( -0.25) |
| Both teams to score 45.58% ( -0.37) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.35% ( -0.34) | 57.65% ( 0.34) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.59% ( -0.27) | 78.41% ( 0.27) |
| Club Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.32% ( -0.05) | 22.68% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.67% ( -0.07) | 56.33% ( 0.07) |
| Aucas Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.95% ( -0.44) | 41.05% ( 0.44) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.4% ( -0.39) | 77.6% ( 0.39) |
| Score Analysis |
| Club Nacional | Draw | Aucas |
| 1-0 @ 13.81% ( 0.16) 2-0 @ 10.24% ( 0.1)2-1 @ 9.12% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 5.07% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 4.51% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 2.01% ( -0.03)4-0 @ 1.88% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.67% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.75% Total : 51.06% | 1-1 @ 12.29% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 9.31% ( 0.12)2-2 @ 4.06% ( -0.06)Other @ 0.65% Total : 26.31% | 0-1 @ 8.29% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 5.48% ( -0.07)0-2 @ 3.69% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 1.63% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 1.21% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 1.1% ( -0.03)Other @ 1.23% Total : 22.61% |
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