SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Cristal win with a probability of 55.56%. A draw had a probability of 25.2% and a win for Club Nacional had a probability of 19.27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Cristal win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.37%) and 2-1 (9.29%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.72%), while for a Club Nacional win it was 0-1 (7.4%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sporting Cristal would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sporting Cristal | Draw | Club Nacional |
55.56% ( 0.19) | 25.17% ( -0.03) | 19.27% ( -0.17) |
| Both teams to score 44.36% ( -0.17) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.05% ( -0.09) | 56.95% ( 0.09) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.15% ( -0.07) | 77.85% ( 0.08) |
| Sporting Cristal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.5% ( 0.04) | 20.5% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.01% ( 0.06) | 52.99% ( -0.06) |
| Club Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 55.8% ( -0.24) | 44.2% ( 0.24) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 19.71% ( -0.2) | 80.29% ( 0.2) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sporting Cristal | Draw | Club Nacional |
| 1-0 @ 14.36% ( 0.07) 2-0 @ 11.37% ( 0.06)2-1 @ 9.29% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 6.01% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 4.91% ( 0)4-0 @ 2.38% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 2% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.94% ( 0)Other @ 3.29% Total : 55.55% | 1-1 @ 11.72% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 9.06% ( 0.03)2-2 @ 3.79% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.59% Total : 25.17% | 0-1 @ 7.4% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 4.79% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 3.02% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 1.3% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 1.03% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.73% Total : 19.27% |
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