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Copa Libertadores | Second Round | 1st Leg
Feb 21, 2023 at 10pm UK
Estadio Arsenio Erico
SC

Nacional
2 - 0
Cristal

Martinez (46'), Aguilar (90+7')
Fernando Alfaro (29'), Martinez (90+3')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Lutiger (90+2'), Yotun (90+4')
Coverage of the Copa Libertadores Second Round clash between Club Nacional and Sporting Cristal.

Form, Standings, Stats

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Last Game: Nacional 3-1 Huancayo
Wednesday, February 15 at 12am in Copa Libertadores
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Last Game: Flamengo 2-1 Cristal
Wednesday, May 25 at 1.30am in Copa Libertadores
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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Club Nacional win with a probability of 38.71%. A win for Sporting Cristal had a probability of 33.56% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Club Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.14%) and 2-0 (7.15%). The likeliest Sporting Cristal win was 0-1 (10.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.07%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Club Nacional would win this match.

Result
Club NacionalDrawSporting Cristal
38.71% (-1.711 -1.71) 27.73% (-0.266 -0.27) 33.56% (1.978 1.98)
Both teams to score 48.39% (1.265 1.27)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
42.58% (1.354 1.35)57.42% (-1.354 -1.35)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
21.77% (1.066 1.07)78.23% (-1.063 -1.06)
Club Nacional Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.19% (-0.32599999999999 -0.33)28.81% (0.329 0.33)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
35.33% (-0.41 -0.41)64.67% (0.411 0.41)
Sporting Cristal Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.97% (2.08 2.08)32.03% (-2.078 -2.08)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.5% (2.303 2.3)68.5% (-2.302 -2.3)
Score Analysis
    Club Nacional 38.71%
    Sporting Cristal 33.55%
    Draw 27.73%
Club NacionalDrawSporting Cristal
1-0 @ 11.48% (-0.72 -0.72)
2-1 @ 8.14% (-0.106 -0.11)
2-0 @ 7.15% (-0.516 -0.52)
3-1 @ 3.37% (-0.076 -0.08)
3-0 @ 2.96% (-0.243 -0.24)
3-2 @ 1.92% (0.066 0.07)
4-1 @ 1.05% (-0.033 -0.03)
4-0 @ 0.92% (-0.085 -0.08)
Other @ 1.71%
Total : 38.71%
1-1 @ 13.07% (-0.049999999999999 -0.05)
0-0 @ 9.23% (-0.487 -0.49)
2-2 @ 4.63% (0.198 0.2)
Other @ 0.8%
Total : 27.73%
0-1 @ 10.5% (0.050000000000001 0.05)
1-2 @ 7.44% (0.384 0.38)
0-2 @ 5.98% (0.36 0.36)
1-3 @ 2.82% (0.294 0.29)
0-3 @ 2.27% (0.254 0.25)
2-3 @ 1.76% (0.168 0.17)
Other @ 2.78%
Total : 33.55%

Read more!
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Form Guide
Last Game: Nacional 3-1 Huancayo
Wednesday, February 15 at 12am in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Huancayo 2-1 Nacional
Wednesday, February 8 at 12am in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Guairena 0-0 Nacional
Thursday, March 17 at 10.15pm in Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Nacional 0-1 Guairena
Thursday, March 10 at 10.15pm in Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Nacional 0-0 12 de Octubre (4-5 pen.)
Tuesday, April 6 at 11.15pm in Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: 12 de Octubre 0-0 Nacional
Tuesday, March 16 at 10.15pm in Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Flamengo 2-1 Cristal
Wednesday, May 25 at 1.30am in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Cristal 0-0 Talleres
Wednesday, May 18 at 1.30am in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Cristal 1-1 Catolica
Thursday, May 5 at 3am in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Talleres 1-0 Cristal
Wednesday, April 27 at 1.30am in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Catolica 2-1 Cristal
Tuesday, April 12 at 11.15pm in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Cristal 0-2 Flamengo
Wednesday, April 6 at 2am in Copa Libertadores


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