SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Coventry City win with a probability of 41.31%. A win for Oxford United had a probability of 34.45% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Coventry City win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.88%) and 2-0 (6.21%). The likeliest Oxford United win was 1-2 (7.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.18%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Coventry City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Coventry City | Draw | Oxford United |
41.31% ( 0.06) | 24.24% ( -0.02) | 34.45% ( -0.05) |
| Both teams to score 60.14% ( 0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.59% ( 0.06) | 42.41% ( -0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.18% ( 0.06) | 64.82% ( -0.06) |
| Coventry City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.32% ( 0.06) | 20.68% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.73% ( 0.09) | 53.27% ( -0.09) |
| Oxford United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.82% ( 0) | 24.18% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.5% ( 0) | 58.5% ( -0) |
| Score Analysis |
| Coventry City | Draw | Oxford United |
| 2-1 @ 8.82% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 7.88% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 6.21% ( 0)3-1 @ 4.63% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 3.29% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 3.26% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.83% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.3% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.29% ( 0)Other @ 2.82% Total : 41.31% | 1-1 @ 11.18% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 6.26% ( 0)0-0 @ 5% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 1.56% ( 0)Other @ 0.24% Total : 24.23% | 1-2 @ 7.94% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 7.1% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 5.04% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 3.76% ( -0)2-3 @ 2.96% ( 0)0-3 @ 2.39% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.33% ( -0)2-4 @ 1.05% Other @ 2.88% Total : 34.45% |
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