Oxford won both of their home games against Peterborough last season, and we think that they will make full use of home advantage again to record a narrow win and seal their place in the second round of the EFL Cup.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Peterborough United win with a probability of 43.21%. A win for Oxford United had a probability of 31.99% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Peterborough United win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.95%) and 0-2 (6.94%). The likeliest Oxford United win was 2-1 (7.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.64%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Oxford United would win this match.
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