Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cruzeiro win with a probability of 56.15%. A draw had a probability of 23.5% and a win for America Mineiro had a probability of 20.37%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cruzeiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.24%) and 2-1 (9.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.16%), while for an America Mineiro win it was 0-1 (6.37%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.2% likelihood.
0.73) 
-0.86) 
