Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fluminense win with a probability of 59.79%. A draw had a probability of 22.3% and a win for America Mineiro had a probability of 17.93%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fluminense win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.85%) and 2-1 (9.86%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.59%), while for an America Mineiro win it was 0-1 (5.69%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fluminense would win this match.
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