Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Santos win with a probability of 39.99%. A win for Cruzeiro had a probability of 32.9% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Santos win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.41%) and 2-0 (7.25%). The likeliest Cruzeiro win was 0-1 (9.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.85%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood.
-0.02) 
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