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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle United Under-21s win with a probability of 49.79%. A win for Derby County Under-21s had a probability of 29.49% and a draw had a probability of 20.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle United Under-21s win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (6.16%) and 0-2 (5.26%). The likeliest Derby County Under-21s win was 2-1 (6.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.99%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Derby County Under-21s | Draw | Newcastle United Under-21s |
29.49% ( -0.03) | 20.71% ( -0) | 49.79% ( 0.03) |
| Both teams to score 71.08% ( -0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 72.82% ( 0) | 27.17% ( -0) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 52.29% ( 0) | 47.7% ( -0.01) |
| Derby County Under-21s Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.45% ( -0.02) | 19.54% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 48.55% ( -0.02) | 51.44% ( 0.02) |
| Newcastle United Under-21s Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.35% ( 0.01) | 11.65% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 63.3% ( 0.02) | 36.69% ( -0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Derby County Under-21s | Draw | Newcastle United Under-21s |
| 2-1 @ 6.52% ( -0) 3-2 @ 3.82% ( -0)1-0 @ 3.72% ( -0)3-1 @ 3.55% ( -0)2-0 @ 3.03% ( -0)3-0 @ 1.65% ( -0)4-2 @ 1.56% ( -0)4-1 @ 1.45% ( -0)4-3 @ 1.12% ( -0)Other @ 3.09% Total : 29.5% | 1-1 @ 7.99% ( -0) 2-2 @ 7.01% ( -0)3-3 @ 2.74% 0-0 @ 2.28% ( -0)Other @ 0.69% Total : 20.71% | 1-2 @ 8.59% ( 0) 1-3 @ 6.16% ( 0)0-2 @ 5.26% ( 0)2-3 @ 5.03% ( 0)0-1 @ 4.89% ( 0)0-3 @ 3.77% ( 0)1-4 @ 3.31% ( 0)2-4 @ 2.7% ( 0)0-4 @ 2.03% ( 0)3-4 @ 1.47% 1-5 @ 1.42% ( 0)2-5 @ 1.16% ( 0)Other @ 4.01% Total : 49.79% |
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