SM
| Current League B Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Nicaragua | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Dominican Republic | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Barbados | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Montserrat | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Current League C Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Cayman Islands | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | US Virgin Islands | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Aruba | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Dominican Republic win with a probability of 39.55%. A win for Aruba had a probability of 36.85% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Dominican Republic win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.86%) and 2-0 (5.52%). The likeliest Aruba win was 1-2 (8.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.6%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Dominican Republic would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Dominican Republic | Draw | Aruba |
39.55% ( -0.28) | 23.6% ( 0.05) | 36.85% ( 0.23) |
| Both teams to score 62.95% ( -0.17) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.07% ( -0.23) | 38.93% ( 0.23) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.75% ( -0.24) | 61.25% ( 0.24) |
| Dominican Republic Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.99% ( -0.23) | 20.01% ( 0.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.8% ( -0.37) | 52.2% ( 0.37) |
| Aruba Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.7% ( 0.01) | 21.3% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.76% ( 0.02) | 54.24% ( -0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Dominican Republic | Draw | Aruba |
| 2-1 @ 8.53% ( -0.03) 1-0 @ 6.86% ( 0.03)2-0 @ 5.52% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 4.58% ( -0.05)3-2 @ 3.54% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 2.96% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 1.84% ( -0.03)4-2 @ 1.42% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 1.19% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.11% Total : 39.55% | 1-1 @ 10.6% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 6.6% ( -0.02)0-0 @ 4.26% ( 0.05)3-3 @ 1.82% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.31% Total : 23.6% | 1-2 @ 8.2% ( 0.04) 0-1 @ 6.59% ( 0.07)0-2 @ 5.1% ( 0.06)1-3 @ 4.23% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 3.4% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 2.63% ( 0.03)1-4 @ 1.63% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 1.32% ( -0)0-4 @ 1.02% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.75% Total : 36.85% |
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