Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Eastleigh win with a probability of 46.57%. A win for York City had a probability of 28.9% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Eastleigh win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.34%) and 2-0 (7.64%). The likeliest York City win was 0-1 (7.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.55%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Eastleigh would win this match.
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