Estrela and Casa Pia have endured a slow start to the new campaign and will head into the weekend in search of a pick-me-up. While both sides are evenly matched on paper, the Tricolores' home advantage gives them a slight edge and we fancy them to make it three consecutive victories over Casa Pia.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estrela Amadora win with a probability of 49.85%. A win for Casa Pia had a probability of 25.14% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Estrela Amadora win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.48%) and 2-0 (8.98%). The likeliest Casa Pia win was 0-1 (7.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.89%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood.
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