SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 80.1%. A draw had a probability of 12.5% and a win for Casa Pia had a probability of 7.42%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.98%) and 2-1 (8.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.7%), while for a Casa Pia win it was 1-2 (2.3%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 10% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Benfica | Draw | Casa Pia |
80.1% ( 1.49) | 12.48% ( -0.65) | 7.42% ( -0.85) |
| Both teams to score 52.38% ( -1.72) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 71.8% ( 0.03) | 28.2% ( -0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 51.01% ( 0.04) | 48.99% ( -0.04) |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 94.57% ( 0.27) | 5.43% ( -0.26) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 78.75% ( 0.76) | 21.25% ( -0.76) |
| Casa Pia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 55.38% ( -1.98) | 44.62% ( 1.98) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 19.38% ( -1.64) | 80.62% ( 1.64) |
| Score Analysis |
| Benfica | Draw | Casa Pia |
| 2-0 @ 10.28% ( 0.31) 3-0 @ 9.98% ( 0.46)2-1 @ 8.3% ( -0.2)3-1 @ 8.06% ( -0.06)4-0 @ 7.27% ( 0.45)1-0 @ 7.06% ( 0.1)4-1 @ 5.87% ( 0.05)5-0 @ 4.24% ( 0.33)5-1 @ 3.42% ( 0.09)3-2 @ 3.25% ( -0.21)4-2 @ 2.37% ( -0.11)6-0 @ 2.06% ( 0.19)6-1 @ 1.66% ( 0.07)5-2 @ 1.38% ( -0.04)Other @ 4.91% Total : 80.09% | 1-1 @ 5.7% ( -0.23) 2-2 @ 3.35% ( -0.27)0-0 @ 2.42% ( -0)Other @ 1.02% Total : 12.48% | 1-2 @ 2.3% ( -0.23) 0-1 @ 1.96% ( -0.11)2-3 @ 0.9% ( -0.13)Other @ 2.27% Total : 7.42% |
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