SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 72.78%. A draw had a probability of 16.3% and a win for Casa Pia had a probability of 10.95%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.38%) and 3-0 (9.04%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.59%), while for a Casa Pia win it was 1-2 (3.24%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Braga | Draw | Casa Pia |
72.78% ( -0.58) | 16.26% ( 0.3) | 10.95% ( 0.28) |
| Both teams to score 52.6% ( -0.14) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.59% ( -0.68) | 35.41% ( 0.68) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.55% ( -0.76) | 57.45% ( 0.76) |
| Braga Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.56% ( -0.29) | 8.44% ( 0.29) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 70.69% ( -0.73) | 29.31% ( 0.72) |
| Casa Pia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.46% ( 0.03) | 42.54% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 21.1% ( 0.02) | 78.9% ( -0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Braga | Draw | Casa Pia |
| 2-0 @ 10.97% ( 0.07) 2-1 @ 9.38% ( 0.07)3-0 @ 9.04% ( -0.07)1-0 @ 8.88% ( 0.18)3-1 @ 7.73% ( -0.05)4-0 @ 5.59% ( -0.12)4-1 @ 4.78% ( -0.1)3-2 @ 3.3% ( -0.02)5-0 @ 2.76% ( -0.1)5-1 @ 2.36% ( -0.09)4-2 @ 2.04% ( -0.04)6-0 @ 1.14% ( -0.06)5-2 @ 1.01% ( -0.04)6-1 @ 0.97% ( -0.05)Other @ 2.83% Total : 72.78% | 1-1 @ 7.59% ( 0.16) 2-2 @ 4.01% ( 0.03)0-0 @ 3.59% ( 0.12)3-3 @ 0.94% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.14% Total : 16.26% | 1-2 @ 3.24% ( 0.07) 0-1 @ 3.07% ( 0.11)0-2 @ 1.31% ( 0.05)2-3 @ 1.14% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 0.92% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.27% Total : 10.96% |
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