The hosts suffered a humiliating 5-1 loss last time out, while the visitors will be high on confidence following their 2-0 win, and we expect that to help Nacional secure another win here. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estrela Amadora win with a probability of 44.3%. A win for Nacional had a probability of 29.06% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Estrela Amadora win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.88%) and 2-0 (8.19%). The likeliest Nacional win was 0-1 (8.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.63%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Estrela Amadora would win this match.

Result
Estrela Amadora	Draw	Nacional
44.3% ( 1.04)	26.64% ( 0.27)	29.06% ( -1.31)

Both teams to score 49.98% (

-1.49)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

45.39% (

-1.6)

54.61% (

1.6)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.05% (

-1.34)

75.95% (

1.34)

Estrela Amadora Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.48% (

-0.19)

24.52% (

0.19)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.02% (

-0.27)

58.98% (

0.27)

Nacional Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.22% (

-1.8)

33.79% (

1.8)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.55% (

-2)

70.45% (

Score Analysis

Estrela Amadora 44.3%

Nacional 29.06%

Draw 26.63%

Estrela Amadora	Draw	Nacional
1-0 @ 11.64% ( 0.65) 2-1 @ 8.88% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 8.19% ( 0.41) 3-1 @ 4.16% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 3.84% ( 0.17) 3-2 @ 2.26% ( -0.12) 4-1 @ 1.46% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 1.35% ( 0.05) Other @ 2.52% Total : 44.3%	1-1 @ 12.63% ( 0.1) 0-0 @ 8.28% ( 0.5) 2-2 @ 4.82% ( -0.23) Other @ 0.9% Total : 26.63%	0-1 @ 8.99% ( 0.12) 1-2 @ 6.86% ( -0.29) 0-2 @ 4.88% ( -0.18) 1-3 @ 2.48% ( -0.24) 0-3 @ 1.76% ( -0.16) 2-3 @ 1.74% ( -0.18) Other @ 2.35% Total : 29.06%