Still licking their wounds from their Taca de Portugal disappointment, Nacional will head into the weekend looking to pick up a morale-boosting result and get their campaign up and running.
However, Casa Pia will enter this one with sky-high confidence, particularly off the back of a dominant cup display, and we are backing them to claim all three points in front of their home supporters.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Casa Pia win with a probability of 39.84%. A win for Nacional had a probability of 32.28% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Casa Pia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.22%) and 2-0 (7.47%). The likeliest Nacional win was 0-1 (10.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Casa Pia in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Casa Pia.
-0.05) 
0.06) 
