Estrela have stumbled into the new campaign and will head into Monday's clash in search of a morale-boosting result. There was a feeling of disappointment for Boavista following their stalemate against Estoril, but we predict that they will take the positives from that result and secure all three points here.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estrela Amadora win with a probability of 44.15%. A win for Boavista had a probability of 28.03% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Estrela Amadora win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.64%) and 2-1 (8.56%). The likeliest Boavista win was 0-1 (9.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.97%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood.
0.45) 
-0.56) 
