SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Exeter City win with a probability of 39.03%. A win for Chesterfield had a probability of 36.71% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Exeter City win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.55%) and 2-0 (5.78%). The likeliest Chesterfield win was 1-2 (8.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.16%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Exeter City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Exeter City | Draw | Chesterfield |
39.03% ( -0.16) | 24.25% ( 0.02) | 36.71% ( 0.14) |
| Both teams to score 60.49% ( -0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.88% ( -0.08) | 42.12% ( 0.07) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.47% ( -0.08) | 64.52% ( 0.07) |
| Exeter City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.36% ( -0.11) | 21.63% ( 0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 45.24% ( -0.18) | 54.75% ( 0.17) |
| Chesterfield Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.19% ( 0.04) | 22.81% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 43.48% ( 0.06) | 56.52% ( -0.07) |
| Score Analysis |
| Exeter City | Draw | Chesterfield |
| 2-1 @ 8.55% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 7.55% ( -0)2-0 @ 5.78% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 4.36% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 3.22% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 2.95% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 1.67% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.23% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 1.13% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.59% Total : 39.03% | 1-1 @ 11.16% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6.32% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 4.93% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 1.59% ( -0)Other @ 0.25% Total : 24.24% | 1-2 @ 8.25% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 7.29% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 5.39% ( 0.03)1-3 @ 4.07% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 3.11% ( 0)0-3 @ 2.66% ( 0.02)1-4 @ 1.5% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 1.15% ( 0)0-4 @ 0.98% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.31% Total : 36.71% |
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