Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Krasnodar win with a probability of 54.85%. A draw had a probability of 24.2% and a win for Akhmat Grozny had a probability of 20.93%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Krasnodar win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.32%) and 2-1 (9.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.5%), while for an Akhmat Grozny win it was 0-1 (6.86%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood.
0.01) 
-0.02) 
