SM
| Current Group J Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Portugal | 10 | 34 | 30 |
| 2 | Slovakia | 10 | 9 | 22 |
| 3 | Luxembourg | 10 | -6 | 17 |
| 4 | Iceland | 10 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 10 | -11 | 9 |
| 6 | Liechtenstein | 10 | -27 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Georgia win with a probability of 67.63%. A draw had a probability of 18.1% and a win for Luxembourg had a probability of 14.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Georgia win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.7%) and 1-0 (8.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.29%), while for a Luxembourg win it was 1-2 (4.08%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Georgia in this match.
| Result | ||
| Georgia | Draw | Luxembourg |
67.63% ( -1.37) | 18.08% ( 0.69) | 14.3% ( 0.69) |
| Both teams to score 56.54% ( -0.7) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.5% ( -1.78) | 35.5% ( 1.78) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.46% ( -2) | 57.54% ( 2) |
| Georgia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.36% ( -0.79) | 9.64% ( 0.79) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 67.81% ( -1.88) | 32.18% ( 1.88) |
| Luxembourg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.57% ( -0.22) | 37.43% ( 0.22) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.79% ( -0.22) | 74.21% ( 0.22) |
| Score Analysis |
| Georgia | Draw | Luxembourg |
| 2-0 @ 9.87% ( 0.19) 2-1 @ 9.7% ( 0.13)1-0 @ 8.44% ( 0.46)3-0 @ 7.7% ( -0.13)3-1 @ 7.57% ( -0.17)4-0 @ 4.5% ( -0.24)4-1 @ 4.43% ( -0.26)3-2 @ 3.72% ( -0.11)4-2 @ 2.17% ( -0.14)5-0 @ 2.11% ( -0.19)5-1 @ 2.07% ( -0.2)5-2 @ 1.02% ( -0.11)Other @ 4.34% Total : 67.63% | 1-1 @ 8.29% ( 0.4) 2-2 @ 4.77% ( 0.04)0-0 @ 3.61% ( 0.32)3-3 @ 1.22% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.19% Total : 18.08% | 1-2 @ 4.08% ( 0.17) 0-1 @ 3.55% ( 0.29)0-2 @ 1.74% ( 0.13)2-3 @ 1.56% ( 0)1-3 @ 1.34% ( 0.05)Other @ 2.04% Total : 14.3% |
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