SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heidenheim win with a probability of 41.18%. A win for FC Koln had a probability of 35.33% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heidenheim win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.93%) and 2-0 (5.74%). The likeliest FC Koln win was 1-2 (7.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.52%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Heidenheim would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Heidenheim | Draw | FC Koln |
41.18% ( -1.88) | 23.49% ( 0.43) | 35.33% ( 1.44) |
| Both teams to score 63.14% ( -1.23) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.42% ( -1.77) | 38.58% ( 1.77) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.12% ( -1.9) | 60.87% ( 1.89) |
| Heidenheim Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.87% ( -1.52) | 19.12% ( 1.52) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.24% ( -2.58) | 50.76% ( 2.57) |
| FC Koln Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.07% ( -0.06) | 21.92% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.8% ( -0.09) | 55.19% ( 0.08) |
| Score Analysis |
| Heidenheim | Draw | FC Koln |
| 2-1 @ 8.71% ( -0.12) 1-0 @ 6.93% ( 0.25)2-0 @ 5.74% ( -0.07)3-1 @ 4.8% ( -0.31)3-2 @ 3.64% ( -0.24)3-0 @ 3.16% ( -0.2)4-1 @ 1.99% ( -0.24)4-2 @ 1.51% ( -0.18)4-0 @ 1.31% ( -0.15)Other @ 3.4% Total : 41.18% | 1-1 @ 10.52% ( 0.36) 2-2 @ 6.61% ( -0.1)0-0 @ 4.19% ( 0.34)3-3 @ 1.84% ( -0.13)Other @ 0.32% Total : 23.48% | 1-2 @ 7.99% ( 0.26) 0-1 @ 6.36% ( 0.51)0-2 @ 4.83% ( 0.38)1-3 @ 4.04% ( 0.13)2-3 @ 3.34% ( -0.06)0-3 @ 2.44% ( 0.19)1-4 @ 1.53% ( 0.04)2-4 @ 1.27% ( -0.02)0-4 @ 0.93% ( 0.07)Other @ 2.6% Total : 35.33% |
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