Koln know that they need to claim all three points to have any hopes of taking their survival fight to the final day of the season, but having lost seven of their nine Bundesliga meetings with Union, we think that the hosts could suffer another defeat in Saturday's contest.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Koln win with a probability of 45.18%. A win for Union Berlin had a probability of 28.58% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Koln win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.03%) and 2-0 (8.24%). The likeliest Union Berlin win was 0-1 (8.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.46%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that FC Koln would win this match.
0.05) 
-0.01) 
