Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Groningen win with a probability of 43.12%. A win for Helmond Sport had a probability of 30.93% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Groningen win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.92%) and 0-2 (7.54%). The likeliest Helmond Sport win was 1-0 (8.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.33%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Groningen would win this match.
0.02) 
-0.04) 
