Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a De Graafschap win with a probability of 55.49%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Helmond Sport had a probability of 20.91%.
The most likely scoreline for a De Graafschap win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.07%) and 2-1 (9.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.22%), while for a Helmond Sport win it was 0-1 (6.45%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that De Graafschap would win this match.
0.13) 
-0.41) 
