SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 47.68%. A win for Holstein Kiel had a probability of 30.12% and a draw had a probability of 22.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.45%) and 0-2 (6.14%). The likeliest Holstein Kiel win was 2-1 (7.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.55%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that St Pauli would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Holstein Kiel | Draw | St Pauli |
30.12% ( 0) | 22.2% ( -0) | 47.68% ( -0) |
| Both teams to score 65.76% ( 0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 65.75% ( 0.03) | 34.25% ( -0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 43.85% ( 0.03) | 56.15% ( -0.03) |
| Holstein Kiel Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.25% ( 0.02) | 22.75% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.57% ( 0.02) | 56.43% ( -0.03) |
| St Pauli Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.12% ( 0.01) | 14.88% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 56.77% ( 0.02) | 43.23% ( -0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Holstein Kiel | Draw | St Pauli |
| 2-1 @ 7.07% 1-0 @ 5.01% ( -0)2-0 @ 3.71% ( -0)3-1 @ 3.49% ( 0)3-2 @ 3.32% ( 0)3-0 @ 1.83% 4-1 @ 1.29% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.23% ( 0)Other @ 3.16% Total : 30.12% | 1-1 @ 9.55% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 6.73% ( 0)0-0 @ 3.39% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 2.11% ( 0)Other @ 0.42% Total : 22.2% | 1-2 @ 9.1% ( -0) 0-1 @ 6.45% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 6.14% ( -0)1-3 @ 5.78% ( 0)2-3 @ 4.28% ( 0)0-3 @ 3.9% ( -0)1-4 @ 2.75% ( 0)2-4 @ 2.04% ( 0)0-4 @ 1.86% ( -0)1-5 @ 1.05% ( 0)3-4 @ 1.01% ( 0)Other @ 3.34% Total : 47.68% |
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